Adjustment (4-12 months)

In the adjustment phase the reality of the ban bites for all concerned and settles to a new rhythm.

Enforcement: If there are rebels who are flouting the ban this is when the enforcement gets tough. In Ireland ‘rebel’ licensees were taken to court, threatened with loss of their licenses (and hence their livelihood) and sizeable fines handed out. Harsh treatment prevents others from following suit.

Drinker/diner behaviour: The group of experimenting non-smokers have largely finished with experimenting. Most have found that they really don’t like pubs after all, a few are ‘converted’ to pub going. These are very unlikely to be ‘regulars’ and they will tend to enjoy less traditional outlets. The smokers who claimed that they would never visit a pub again are creeping back to see familiar faces and surroundings. They are, however, spending less time and less money there.

Business impacts: Trade generally continues 4-8% down on last year, but with major variations between sectors.