Rebasing (1-2 years)

In the final phase behaviour finally finds a new and permanent routine.

Enforcement: Any rebellion has been quashed (or has simply given up and are staying away) so minimal behavioural enforcement is needed. Attention turns to the legality of shelters provided for smokers.

Drinker/diner behaviour: The way customers use licensed premises is permanently changed, with a focus on food and ‘event’ led visits.

Rather than making multiple short visits, drinkers concentrate their use to one or two longer sessions over the weekend. Overall spending is lower. Dining visits and use of food outlets generally becomes more regular causing a permanent shift from traditional pubs and bars to restaurants.

Business impacts: Having experienced at least one Winter the weakest premises have closed down, forcing customers to relocate to other premises. In the long term this will help the remaining premises remain open but in the process will have eliminated around 10% of pubs, bars and clubs – mostly traditional, community operations.

Health impacts: The majority of 'Quitters' have started smoking again and any reduction in incidence is similar to other places where smoking has not been banned in 'public places'.